BC Copper 2509 Pulled Back After Night Session Rally, Recovery in Demand and Increased Imports Dominate Current Fundamentals [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2509 opened at 70,070 yuan/mt and closed lower on the day. During the night session, BC copper initially fluctuated upward to a high of 70,420 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward. After the daytime session opened, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower, touching the intraday low of 70,000 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 70,050 yuan/mt, with a decline of 0.03%. Open interest reached 3,903 lots, a decrease of 94 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume was 2,444 lots. Macro perspective, Trump's push for a ceasefire in Ukraine reduced geopolitical risks, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in September provided support. However, Trump's plan to impose a 300% tariff on chips and expand tariffs on steel and aluminum raised trade policy uncertainties. Fundamentally, concentrated arrivals of imported copper significantly boosted inventories, with suppliers actively selling imported sources. Meanwhile, domestic copper cathode supply remained limited, and registered SX-EW copper began to enter the market. On the demand side, as we entered late August, demand gradually recovered. Inventory-wise, as of August 18, SMM national mainstream area copper inventories increased by 8,100 mt to 133,700 mt WoW.

The SHFE copper contract 2509 closed at 78,950 yuan/mt. If the BC copper 2509 contract is 70,050 yuan/mt, its post-tax price would be 79,156 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper 2509 contract was -206, maintaining an inverted spread and narrowing compared to the previous day.